By Molly Slothower
19 June 2009 [MEDIAGLOBAL]: It has always been much easier to raise money to clean up messes once photographs of the tragic impact of hurricanes, floods, and other disasters hit the international stage via the media.
Heart-wrenching scenes on televisions around the world trigger outpouring of support, which are often reduced to trickles as the images fade from the public eye.
However, this approach costs thousands of lives and sets back development in poor countries every year. For every dollar spent ahead of natural disasters on preparation and early warning systems, at least four dollars are saved once the disaster strikes.
Over the last few decades, improvements in weather prediction are making warnings of likely events much more accurate. This has been coupled with improvements in coordination and training of local communities on how to spread the word of an impending natural crisis and how to protect themselves. Together, these advances are making a big difference in how communities, countries, and the world are responding.
In May 2008, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRCRC) received a warning that the June to August period could hold massive flooding in West Africa.
“Having had the experience of a fairly poor humanitarian response [to floods in the area] the year before, we took that warning very seriously,” Martin van Aalst, leading climate specialist and the Associate Director of the IFRCRC Climate Center in the Hague, told MediaGlobal.
“This first-ever appeal to international humanitarian donors based on a weather forecast ahead of the season allowed us to preposition supplies. It allowed us to have a response time of one to two days to reach beneficiaries instead of almost 40 days in 2007, fewer victims (30 instead of hundreds the year before), and a 30 percent lower cost per beneficiary,” said Aalst.
This was the first of what has become several events that have had significantly lower losses in human lives and livelihoods when international donors were approached for preventative support on the basis of medium-term weather forecasts.
“It’s not just about getting a scientific warning; it’s about getting it to the people. This might happen by radio, it might happen by villagers on the back of a motorcycle with bullhorns.” said Aalst. “It’s about knowing what to do and being able to act after the warning comes.”
This year, scientists have provided the IFRCRC with warnings of El Niño for this coming season, which could cause food shortages and other harmful impacts. They have also forecasted unusually high heat waves in parts of North-East Africa, including Egypt.
The forecast for Egypt just came out for the June to August period, and could be deadly unless it is addressed. The information was passed from weather institutions to the Red Crescent Society in Egypt, which has begun preparations to ensure food stability during the potential crisis.
“One of the things that we’ve been doing with the IFRCRC is to try to bridge the gap between provision of forecasts of extreme weather events and the response to this information,” said Dr. Simon Mason of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at the unveiling of the report.
“As scientists, we tend to talk in very complicated language and make a lot of our information very difficult to understand,” Mason said. But they are now partnering with the Federation to give specific, understandable warnings when they are necessary.Developing countries are hurt the most by natural disasters, and are damaged disproportionately when they occur. In 2008, 99 percent of disaster deaths occurred in developing countries, while only 76 percent of natural disasters took place in these more vulnerable nations.
These countries also made up only 1 percent of insured losses from natural disasters. This means that in the aftermath of these tragedies, developing countries don’t have the same support for recovering losses and rebuilding that wealthier countries rely on.
But Early Warning, Early Action preparedness plans put in place by the IFRCRC, governments, and other partners have already saved countless lives. A massive flood killed thousands in Mozambique in 2000. Eight years later an equally serious flood pummeled the same area, but this time, only six people died. Preparedness and early warning projects can take a lot of the credit for that improvement.
